By Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com
      Going into Thursday night, the West’s supposedly hottest team, the Lakers, had lost two straight. The West’s team selected as “Most Likely To Spit The Bit,’’ the Spurs, had won seven straight.
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      Clearly, the prediction business is a dangerous game – and that’s especially true of the Mavs. Still, a glance at the standings and the schedule suggests strongly that Dallas is prepared to own and hold the fifth seed in the West.
      Which will bring on it’s own set of questions, including, “What’s the difference between fifth and sixth’’? And, “Is it really advantageous to be No. 5 instead of No. 6?’’
      First, the numbers from the Dallas-vs-Memphis battle: With the Mavs’ 117-94 victory Thursday over Utah, both clubs are 50-28, with four games to play. The Mavs’ schedule features at Seattle, at Golden State (the second night of a back-to-back roadie), the pivotal Tuesday, April 13 home game against Memphis, and then another back-to-back, a quick trip to Houston.
      The Grizz sched seems tougher: at the Lakers, at Phoenix, at Dallas and, on the second night of a back-to-back, home against Minnesota.
      Advantage, Dallas.
      In the event of a tie, head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. If the Mavs win next Tuesday, there'll be a 2-2 series advantage. In the even of a final-record tie, the Mavs still have the upper hand because the second tiebreaker is conference record. Right now, the Mavs are 30-17 in the conference, the Grizz 28-20.
      Advantage, Dallas.
      Now, is “advantage’’ even the right word? Is it an advantage to even be fifth?
      The No. 6 seed plays the No. 3 seed. With more standings shuffling yet to occur, the theoretically feared Lakers could settle in at No. 3 – reason enough for some teams to want out of the sixth slot.
      If you were Las Vegas, you’d look at the top four teams’ chances this way:
      Minnesota was at Sacto on Thursday, and finishes with at Golden State, home Utah and at Memphis. The T’wolves could go 3-1 there.
      Sacto hosted Minny, is at Phoenix, home against the Lakers, at Denver and at Golden State. Let’s give the Kings 4-1.
      The Lakers are home Memphis, at Sacto, home Golden State and at Portland. Sounds like 4-0.
      The Spurs are home Portland, at the Clippers, at Portland and home Denver. Let’s say 4-0 there, too.
      If it breaks down that way, Minny gets the tiebreaker over Sacto and they are the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds. LA gets the edge over SA and they are 3 and 4.
      So Dallas opens against San Antonio, with the winning team likely to be the lowest remaining seed, and therefore drawing the highest remaining seed (likely Minnesota) in Round 2.
      How certain are we of all this? We believe all of the above will happen. … unless it doesn’t, in which case we change our minds.