By David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com
Having lots of cap space is considered the Holy Grail of the NBA. But as we examine how that thought applies to the Mavs, cap space might be more like cotton candy.
Conventional wisdom: a team can be a real player in improving its roster if it has cap space. It gives a team great advantages, doesn't it? And when it comes to the Dallas Mavericks, they are far over the cap and it appears they will be in that situation for several years to come and therefore they must be doomed, yes?
Once you take a closer look, you find that the truth is to the contrary. Having cap room is actually like eating the aforementioned cotton candy: before you get a good taste of what appears to be a extra-large meal, it evaporates.
The current plights – yes, plights! -- of two contenders illustrate just how illusory the freedom and luxury of "cap space" can be. Both San Antonio and Detroit appear to have "tons of cap room" yet both will be forced to make decisions this summer that may cost them good players they want to keep.
THE SPURS' SITUATION
Wow, look at the Spurs. They have it made. After being well over the cap for many years, last year they netted a huge pile of cap room with the retirement of David Robinson. Even though their only sizable free-agent move was to be able to try to keep the status quo by adding on Rasho Nesterovic to replace D Rob, they appear to be way under the cap again this summer and poised to finally make a big talent upgrade with room for a major free agent or two.
They have so much cap room they might even sign Kobe, to play next to Duncan and create a monster for years to come. What a great situation to be in!
Well, the reality is that they are not in that situation at all. In fact, once you take a closer look, they might be hard pressed to merely keep their own good players, much less consider adding a major free agent.
If nothing changes, once you factor in the hidden cap charges and the technicalities of the cap, in 2004-05, San Antonio already could be above the cap. Here is a list of their impending cap charges for next year:
Players

Duncan 14,260,649
Nesterovic 6,160,000
Rose 5,462,500
Bowen 4.106,667
Parker 1.545,441
Brown 695,046
Turkoglu 2,803,834 cap hit for qualifying offer for RFA
Ginobili 1,929,375 cap hit for qualifying offer for RFA
Ward 1,100,000 player option, perhaps might opt out
Horry 5,408,700 non-guaranteed, likely July 1 cut

Other cap charges
Rookie scale for 1st pick 750,000 estimated
Hart ... he might be a RFA. I am counting him at 0, because I expect that if he is indeed a RFA they will renounce RFA rights and still try to sign him. If they retain his rights the total below would go up by almost $1M.

CURRENT TOTAL ...... 44,222,212

The 03-04 cap was $43.84M, so even with a modest increase the Spurs already appear to be at or over the cap for 2004-05.
Projected revisions: I anticipate the Spurs will release Horry on July 1, trimming $5.4M. Ward will be subtly encouraged to leave, freeing up another $1.1M if they are successful.
If the 2004-05 cap falls somewhere around 44M, cutting Horry and persuading Ward to leave will still will leave SA with only about $8M to sign Ginobili. Is that more than enough? I'm not sure, but there is no question he will garner offers well over $6M.
SA will likely make a hard push to get Ginobili locked up on the first day possible, because once SA has to give Tukoglu an actual contract for more than the $2.8M qualifier, the amount they have to offer Ginobili will be lessened even farther. If Ginobili gets a bigger offer than $8M, or if Turkoglu signs an offer before the Spurs can reach a deal with Ginobili, the Spurs may have to jettison Turkoglu in order to keep Ginobili. Other teams will undoubtedly recognize SA's quandry and attempt to entice Turkoglu quickly, where he would be more likely to be acquirable without a match by the Spurs.
As you can see, SA may be scrambling just to try to get room for Ginobili. They could lose Turkoglu in the process. Could they afford Kobe instead, at a much higher contract? Obviously not.
With all their apparent cap room over two summers, all SA appears able to do with this cap room is to maintain their roster by replacing the retired David Robinson with Nesterovic, plus attempt to keep their own players. All their other acquisitions have been made via the standard methods available to all teams (even those well over the cap): Trades, Exceptions, and Minimums.
They had so much cap room to play with. Yet they really couldn't upgrade their talent, merely adding Nesterovic via free agency to try to replace Robinson. Where did all the cap room go? It was cotton candy - one taste, and it's gone.
THE PISTONS’ SITUATION
The Pistons also appear to have a ton of cap room this summer. They want to keep Rasheed Wallace. He has fit in well. But they also have aimed to keep Mehmet Okur, their center of the future, who is a RFA..
With all this cap room they have carved out, surely they can keep both, can't they?
The fact is that there are two directions they could choose, in no particular order. And neither one can ensure that they will end up with both of their existing players.
Plan A: Sign Wallace first, then try to work a deal with Okur.
In this approach, they sign Wallace using his Bird Rights (this is the rule that allows a team to go over the cap to sign their own veteran free agent). If they do this, they can still keep Okur, if they can persuade him to sign with them for less than the MLE of approx $4.9M. But if he gets an offer for more than the MLE, they would have no way to match it, because they don't have Bird Rights with Okur..
Plan B: Sign Okur first, then try to work a deal with Wallace.
They do not have Bird Rights on Okur, so they are not allowed to go over the cap to sign him. As long as Wallace has Bird Rights and is unsigned, they get hit with a cap charge of approx $25M, so to sign Okur first they would have to begin by renouncing their Bird Rights on Wallace. That would put them well under the cap, and they would have plenty of room to sign Okur, for up to approximately 10M. Once they do this, they can try to keep Wallace. However, they would no longer be able to go over the cap to keep him, so they would have to persuade him to sign with them for less than the MLE of approximately $4.9M.
But this allows Wallace to hit the market, and Detroit would have no ability to offer him more than the MLE, meaning the Knicks and everyone else have an equal shot at getting him. Furthermore, once they opt for Okur as their main goal and the one who gets the bigger contract between the two, would Wallace get upset and disenchanted? This approach could get tricky, especially given Wallace's volatile nature.
How about Plan C: Can they lock up both, for more than the MLE? Nope, having a huge pile of cap room still doesn't give them the freedom to do this. The only way they could get the ability to enable Plan C would be to find a way to trade away someone for a draft pick (notably Williamson or Campbell) and get another team to assume that contract, which isn't likely to happen.
If they are going to keep both, then one or the other will have to accept the MLE or less.
So they have to choose a priority out of the two players, and then let the chips fall where they may. Which direction will they go? Do they opt for Wallace, who has fit in so well and has a better game right now? Or Okur, their "center of the future"?
Even though they supposedly have tons of cap room, they are in severe danger of being unable to keep their own players.
SO, WHAT ABOUT THE MAVS' SITUATION?
When it comes to the Dallas Mavericks, they are far over the cap and it appears they will be in that situation for several years to come.
But the Mavs have been able to keep their own players when they want to, and they are able to maintain their talent level, and they are a 50-plus-wins contender. Guess what: That is exactly the situation the Spurs and Pistons are hoping they end up in!