Magic Acts
Dissecting Those T-Mac/No. 1 Rumors
David Lord and Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com - Posted: 2004-05-13 00:00:00.000


By David Lord and Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com
      Just as we’re trying to digest the T-Mac-to-Dallas gossip, we’re served up an equally supersized Magic-Mavs rumor involving the No. 1 overall pick.
DB.COM BOARDS
FISH ON RADIO
      Where are the rumors coming from? How much validity do they have? And how much sense would it make for either team to do the deals?
      Rumor No. 1 has the Magic’s superstar McGrady coming to Dallas in a trade. Let’s first discuss the origin of the rumor, then the benefits, then the validity.
      McGRADY TO DALLAS?
      McGrady Rumor Origin: We can find no one in the NBA world who even hints that this is actually being talked about between the two teams. As near as we can tell, this is internet/talk-radio/fantasy trade stuff. We’ve heard a few writers go on radio and throw it out there, but most of those same writers are apparently too unconvinced to actually throw it out there in their own newspapers.
      McGrady Rumor Benefits: We admit to being in love with the idea of creating an offensive totem pole that moves Dirk down to the No. 2 option. McGrady ranks with Kobe Bryant as being almost unique in the things he can do. McGrady does very little to address Dallas’ problems; he isn’t a big man and he plays very good defense only when he wants to. But he’s a top-5 player in the league, and he’s not a bum off the court. Yes, yes, yes, all things being equal, you want McGrady on your team – but it seems more wise to spend whatever assets the Mavs have on that elusive big man.
      McGrady Rumor Validity: Ah, here’s the problem. While many of the gossip items mention the possibility of sending Michael Finley and Antoine Walker to Orlando for McGrady and the perpetually injured Grant Hill (thus making it a salary match), the items shortchange the likelihood that McGrady’s almost unmatched ability figures to net the Magic a greater reward than the Finley-Walker combo.
      What if Orlando can get Phoenix’ Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson and Jake Voskuhl for T-Mac? What if Orlando can get Indy’s Jonathan Bender and Al Harrington for T-Mac? (More rumors, but rumors that seem more attractive than the Dallas rumor.)
      Also, there is some thought in Orlando that they should chase Mavs’ rookie Marquis Daniels. Keep in mind, in Orlando, Daniels’ name comes up in conjunction with McGrady’s because there is a local connection and the two are friends. (Updated Note: With Daniels, it appears almost certain that Dallas will have to use some or much of its Mid Level Exception to retain Daniels. (This assumes he gets an offer that begins with a first year salary over 1.6M, but less than 5M). In such a case, he is not trade eligible for a sign-and-trade. Cap rules say you cant s-n-t a MLE signing. That is technical but it has easy practical application. In any trade this summer, Daniels is going to essentially be ineligible to be part of the trade. So when we dream up fantasy trade scenarios, we have to exclude Daniels.)
      And then there are the completely ignored financial ramifications. By the time you deal with McGrady’s salary ($93 mil for seven years), Hill’s salary (and uselessness over the course of three more years at the max), and the cap penalties, Mark Cuban may be spending $300 million to have T-Mac on his team.
      Of course, McGrady’s opt-out comes after this season. So Orlando will be looking to secure something involving him (though not necessarily until February, trade-deadline time.)
      In summary, by the time you’ve written those checks, sacrificed assets without acquiring a big and quite possibly given up a Walker and a Finley and a Daniels and who knows what else, T-Mac-to-Dallas doesn’t seem a likely fit.

      LOTTERY PICK TO DALLAS?
      Lottery Pick Rumor Origin:
      There is no confirmation, no sourcing, no nothing. So again, this seems internet-driven. But then Chad Ford of ESPN.com picked it up and made it even more vague, by saying Orlando REALLY wants the No. 1 overall pick (no kidding?) and then, might either keep it, or trade it. (No kidding?) And then Ford mentions Hill and Walker.
      Subsequently, the Orlando Sentinel has picked it up and claimed as if it is fact that the Mavs “would sent a combination package’’ featuring Walker for Hill and the No. 1 pick.’’
      That’s a bit vague for us, too; what’s a “combination package’’? We also view the paper’s claim that this rumor is said to “have legs’’ as a self-fulfilling prophesy. The reason it has legs is because by writing that it “has legs,’ it “gets legs.’’
      Lottery Pick Rumor Benefits: Even in the DB.com offices we have two schools of thought on this one. Some staffers believe that taking on the weight of Hill’s deal makes it unworthy for Dallas. Let’s discuss that first simply by reminding what Antoine Walker’s contract (and talent) can net: think of what teams gave up to have Rasheed Wallace and his similar situation.
      Others on our staff believe that this deal is worth talking about – but only if the Magic’s lottery pick ends up being the first- or second-overall pick, meaning you get Atlanta high-schooler Dwight Howard or U Conn center Emeka Okafor.
      If Mark Cuban chooses to ignore the Hill-related financial ramifications here, he could end up trading Walker for Okafor – and a rookie contract is a positive financial ramification, especially if Okafor becomes an immediate defensive presence and a starter. Again, assuming, of course, that Okafor develops into something between Theo Ratliff and Ben Wallace, that seems like a sweet swap.
      Lottery Pick Rumor Validity: Orlando has said repeatedly that they would prefer to not make a trade, that they would rather build with the pieces they have. That goes for a top pick and it goes for McGrady. If Okafor is a stud building block, and he joins McGrady as a stud building block, why wouldn’t Orlando simply retain them both?
      In summary. … if the Magic is smart, that’s exactly what it will do.