Your All-Access Primer To Mavs-Nuggets

   Dallas is “hot’’ and thinks Denver is “great.’’ Denver is “great’’and thinks Dallas is “hot.’’

   The early quotes coming out of the Western semifinal matchup between the Mavs and the Nuggets (Game 1 is 2:30 Sunday in Denver) suggest that there is a mutual admiration that belies Dallas’ 0-4 regular-season record against the team from the Mile High City.

  We think there are some facts that belie 0-4. ... and some facts that belie the idea that there is all that much "mutual admiration.''

  DallasBasketball.com issues Your All-Access Primer: an early analysis of the four regular-season meetings, the controversies, the stats, and the coming matchup:

 “(Dallas) is a lot different (than the Nuggets’ first-round victim, New Orleans,’’ said Nugz team leader Chauncey Billups. “They're probably one of the hotter teams in the NBA right now.’’

   Countered Dallas coach Rick Carlisle: “Denver had a great year and has been great in the playoffs. They are long, athletic and dynamically talented at each position."

    Both teams are even in one sense: The Nuggets, like the Mavericks, won their first-round series in five games against teams that were expected to put up a much better fight.

    Both teams are completely different in another sense: In Dallas, we bemoan the fact that it’s been since 2006 since the Mavs were in the NBA Finals. The Thuggets. … er, Nuggets. … have no grand recent history as a playoff team. In fact, the last time Denver won a Round 1 was 1994, when Dikembe Mutombo famously sprawled on the floor holding the basketball.

    That was 15 years ago. Mutombo was 57 at the time.

     But casual observers are only seeing the one seemingly huge gap between the two clubs:

     0-4.

     Denver swept the season series, and God bless ‘em, they did it with homecoming Chauncey Billups being traded for A.I. and they did it with Carmelo Anthony averaging 31.3 points and nine rebounds while playing in three of the Nuggets' wins against Dallas, and they did it with all their zany personalities coming together on four nights, as they did so many times over the course of the year to become a surprise second seed in the impossibly tough West.

     However. …

    Three of the Mavericks' four losses to the Nuggets were by a total of seven points. The other was by 10. Also, Josh Howard missed two of the meetings. And Jason Kidd missed one of them, a rarity for the iron man.

    Let’s take a look at each individual game this season, with some highlights, lowlights, stats and DallasBasketball.com’s coverage of the at-the-time events:

The One WHERE JOSH COULDN’T CATCH THE BALL

Game 1: Nov. 7^th: Mavs- 105 @ Nuggets- 108

MAVS

- Jason Kidd: 22 pts, 10 reb, 9 asst

- Dirk: 23 pts, 10 reb

- JET: 20 pts, 7ast

- Damp: Only 9:00 minutes, 0 points

NUGGETS

- Chauncey Billups: 15 pts, 3 ast

- Carmelo: 28 pts

- Nene: 19 pts, 7 reb

DB.com’s MORNING DONUTS from the Nov. 7 game

 The Nuggets took this one by 3 points and both teams got pretty good production from their key players. But if believe the notion that “Dallas is a different team that it was before,’’ this is your strongest argument. This game came during the Mavs 2-7 start at the beginning of the season; the way this club operates (and the results) are vastly different now, as that 2-7 regular-season start was balanced by a 7-2 regular-season finish – plus the 4-1 record against San Antonio. That’s an 11-3 streak. Different from Nov. 7, to be sure.

   Oh, yeah. Click on that DONUTS link and you’ll be reminded of something you’ve probably forgotten: Josh Howard’s wrist was a mess. He played. … but it’s almost as if he didn’t.

The One Where ‘WE COULDN’T HIT A BULL IN THE ASS WITH A BASS FIDDLE’

Game 2: Dec, 15^th: Nuggets- 98 @ Mavs- 88

MAVS

Josh Howard off the bench, only played 14 minutes

- Dirk: 27 pts, 10 reb

- JET: 19 pts

- Barea: 12 pts, 9 ast

NUGGETS

- J.R. Smith: 25 pts

- Carmelo: 23 pts, 8 reb

- Nene: 12 pts, 9 reb

   The Mavs seemed like the inferior team here, though it is notable that J-Ho was coming off the bench in the process of trying to recover from injury. If you are a Mavs follower looking for another “difference,’’ the fact that Josh played limited minutes and played ineffectively comes to your rescue.

   And besides, as Carlisle said, “We couldn't hit a bull in the ass with a bass fiddle.’’

DB.com’s GAME STORY from Dec. 15

The One Where ‘CHAUNCEY WAS ‘MR. BIG KNEE’ AND JR WAS ‘MR. BIG ELBOW’

Game 3: Jan, 13^th: Mavs- 97 @ Nuggets- 99

MAVS

No Josh Howard

- Dirk: 44 pts, 14 reb

- JET: 16 pts

- Barea: 10 pts, 5 reb

NUGGETS

No Carmelo Anthony

- Chauncey Billups: 23 pts, 4 ast

- Nene: 20 pts, 6 reb

   Here is a game where both teams were missing key players – the absence of ‘Melo is a debate point in Denver’s favor. But here’s something Dallas can hang its Stetson on: Dirk had a HUGE game – wasted as it was in the two-point loss – and Denver seemed to stick with trying to guard him with one guy.

   This seems to establish that the theory that the Thuggets’ K-Mart doesn’t especially bother The UberMan and that he is able to have big games – 23, 27 and 44! against the Nugz.

   Speaking of the Thuggets: This was the JR Smith Elbow game, when Mark Cuban tried to protect Antoine Wright’s head and got in trouble for it. 

DB.com’s GAME STORY from Jan. 13

The One WHERE THE IRON MAN WAS RUSTY

Game 4: March, 27^th: Nuggets-103 @ Mavs- 101

MAVS

No Josh Howard

No Jason Kidd

- Dirk: 26 pts, 11 reb

- Barea: 22 pts

- JET: 20 pts

NUGGETS

- Carmelo: 43 pts, 11 reb

- J.R. Smith: 22 pts

   DB.com’s ALL-ACCESS PASS to March 27

   This seemed to be a crushing blow for the Mavs at the time, as they were trying to climb from the basement of the West contenders. (It worked out OK, though). Here is another example where the Mavs were missing not one but two key players yet stayed in the game until the final second.

    Jason Kidd was resting his back and Josh was going through ankle problems. ‘Melo was incredible, getting whatever shot he wanted, including the game-winner. Dirk, meanwhile, faltered down the stretch, missing a potential gamewinner with six seconds left.

   So, let’s add it up: The Nuggets won three of the four meetings by a combined seven points (and the other one by a relatively-decisive 10 points). Denver won the four games by an average of four points per game -- a margin of two baskets a game that, in theory, could have/can be made up by the two-way presence of Josh for 40 minutes, the in-control presence of Kidd for the final two minutes (in that March 27 loss, to be sure) and even the simple factor of playoff pressure.

   Those numbers and those factors suggest that Denver might be better … but ever so slightly. And that the margin is make-up-able.

Now, you know how much we hate “Matchup Charts.’’ So instead – mostly as a response to all the media folks who are going to assemble their silly boxes – we’ll do one. But it’s in the form of “positional groupings’’:

Jason Kidd/J.J. Barea	PG	Chauncey Billups/Anthony Carter
Antoine Wright/ Jason Terry/ J.J. Barea	SG	Dahntay Jones/J.R. Smith
Josh Howard/ Antoine Wright/ James Singelton	SF	Carmelo Anthony/Linas Kleiza
Dirk Nowitzki/ Brandon Bass/ James Singleton	PF	Kenyon Martin/Chris Anderson
Erick Dampier/ Ryan Hollins/ Brandon Bass	C	Nene/Chris Anderson

   PG GROUPING- Even though Chauncey Billups has been brilliant in the regular season – some think he deserves some MVP also-ran consideration – and even though he’s done the same this postseason, the Mavs and Jason Kidd have a comfy matchup at the point guard position. Chauncey isn’t one of those speed guys that tend to torment Kidd. Jason’s challenge will be to contain Billups as a perimeter shooter … and of course, to take advantage of the same on the offensive end, assuming Denver chooses to leave Kidd open at the arc.

   Recent history says we won’t see Barea on Billups much (though he could guard Anthony Carter). It’s Kidd vs. Billups, a classic duel – “One for the Aged,’’ as Sefko said the other day.

   SG GROUPING- The matchup at shooting guard will be a big key in this series in part because of its unpredictability. Dahntay Jones won’t kill you, but he can make shots. He is similar to Antoine Wright in that they both fill time and fill specific roles for their teams before the sixth man comes in.

   Wright will also have his hands full with J.R. Smith, an erratic thinker who will fire up anything inside of half-court – and make it. It will be interesting to see how the Mavs guard Smith because he could be that clichéd “X-Factor’’ in this series. Does he lose his cool? Can AW keep his? Can Jason Terry stay with JR on defense? Does JR launch 3’s, fly to the hole, or both?

   And who throws the first elbow? And how quickly does Tony Cubes do the Twitter thing about it?

   This much is clear: Dallas will need a better series from Terry in Round 2 than it got from Jet in Round 1 – and Anthony Carter has some defensive skills that make that a challenge.

   SF GROUPING- At the 3 position is the MVP of Round 1 for the Mavs and for Dallas to have a shot at true contention, J-Ho will have to keep that level of play up for the remainder of the playoffs. He has demonstrated how critical he is to this team since returning from his ankle injury; Dallas is a 67-percent winner when Josh is right.

   Howard added something else in the SA series: He quit shot-hunting, melding better with teammates and helping everyone else around him to click together. (Go back and watch what Josh did on the break; while in the regular season he often tried to lead it himself, against the Spurs, he immediately tried to find Kidd in the middle of the court. Textbook stuff.)

    Howard played in one Denver game this year, missed two games completely and barely played in the third. To assume an easy Nuggets success in this series is to ignore what Dallas was missing without him.

   Josh faces a massive  matchup with ‘Melo, who has been able to pencil himself in for 31 points against Denver. Howard will get some help from AW here, and maybe from James Singleton, too.

    But Josh vs. ‘Melo could be the pivot point of the series.

   PF GROUPING- The other day, we heard some radio guys arguing over whether Dirk would be “intimidated’’ by K-Mart.

    Watch the games, fellas.

    Dirk averaged 30 points per game against Denver this season. The UberMan has no historic problems with K-Mart, Wal-Mart, Quik-E-Mart, or whomever the Nuggets want to send at him. Martin is long anf strong, he’s athletic and can jump. On paper, he’s a problem. On the court? He’s just not Dirk.

    Dirk must have a big series, and the smart money says he will.

    (Speaking of money: DFW native K-Mart recently bought a house in Arlington in Angry Trey’s parents’ neighborhood. It is MASSIVE. We will try to get TMZ ourselves some photos over there one of these days. Maybe after this series, when K-Mart has nothing to do but hang out there! ;) )

   We bet that in the fourth quarters, we’ll see ‘Melo taking a turn against Dirk. He tried to get physical with him in the January game. It didn’t work. But they tried it.

   C GROUPING- The center position is THE biggest key for the Mavs in this series. Nene has given Damp problems in the past and it will likely continue. Dampier was a (relative) monster for the Mavs in Round 1, so it seems weird that he could fight to a standoff with Tim Duncan but might not be called on to be an extensive-minutes factor against the likes of Nene.

   Remember though, Damp was ineffective enough that first Denver-Dallas game in November that he only played nine minutes. That’s telling. Yes, yes, in January, Damp pulled down 15 rebounds in the Denver game. But we’re stuck on that nine-minutes thing. …

   Nene is a center in a power-forward’s body, with all the inherent pluses and minuses of that. We expect Carlisle to use all of Bass’ fouls to keep Nene in some semblance of control. We also expect a taste of Hollins in that same role; in Game 4 against SA, his primary assignment was to use up fouls (he did that, with four; he just happened to do even more than that). Ideally, Dampier keeps turning himself up a notch, but Denver-Dallas history doesn’t make that seem promising.

   There’s one more zany issue here, that of Birdman. His athleticism, behavior and appearance tends to get the Denver crowd involved. Some Birdman vs. some Hollins would be bizarre fun.

     Add it up again. … and it doesn’t read like 0-4. There simply isn’t a huge gap between these two teams. Not even in the areas of “youth’’ and “length,’’ where the Thuggets keep earning credit from the mainstream media.

   For the record, the average height for each team is the same at 6’7. And the average age for the Nuggets is 27 while it is 28 for the Mavs.

    See? Even at 0-4, not that much difference.