Why Bosh Doesn't Want To Be Traded To Dallas*

*(At Least Not 'Til July 2010). Dollars & Sense Of 2 Semi-Known NBA Rules

David Lord -- DB.com

We’ve all understood Toronto’s plans for Bosh, of course, which have been unambiguous at every step of the way: do everything they can to keep Bosh and build around him for the long term. As recently as a week ago, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo was talking about surrounding him with better players and hopes of inking him to an extension this summer.

Meanwhile Bosh has been coy and even appeared contradictory at times about his future direction. He’s always said he wants to leave his options open. But he’s never expressed a burning itch to get away from Toronto; as recently as Thursday morning in an ESPN Radio interview he said he’s “happy in Toronto.” 

Those words were forgotten when later in the day Bosh told reporters that he would not sign an extension with Toronto this summer.

(AP) - Chris Bosh doesn't plan to sign a contract extension with the Toronto Raptors this summer and is preparing to become a free agent at the end of next season. 

Bosh is in the final year of a deal that will pay him $15.7 million. While Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo has spoken optimistically in the past about signing Bosh to an extension this summer, Bosh said that isn't his intention. He said leaving his status up in the air could actually help both himself and the Raptors, who missed the playoffs this season with a 33-49 record.

"[When] I signed a three-year [extension in 2006]... I had a goal in mind, and that was to put myself in the best position [in 2010] ... I'm thinking I just want to stick to my goal, stick to what I was doing," Bosh told reporters. "That's a part of the plan ... I just want to address things [after] next season. There's a reason why I did things the way I did them back then."

Fans and media have reacted strongly to those words, with the assumption that the Raptors will soon have to succumb to the inevitable and trade him. Fish spoke at length on 103.3 ESPN Radio on Friday night about the Mavs' chances to win what he views as the soon-to-come bidding war over the young star, later adding, “We are witnessing the likely beginning of the end with Chris Bosh in Toronto” followed by the additional assertion that these words signaled “that Bosh, the Dallas native, is not in love with the promise of the Raptors and is desirous of a possible move.” Fish wasn’t alone in those reactions.

But is that true? Is Bosh now headed to the trading block? Do the Mavs have great hope of “bringing him home’’ this summer?

I don’t think so. In fact, when looking at the NBA’s rulebook, this all looks to be like an overreaction to what should have been expected. Those seeing this decision as a precursor to an imminent deal are completely misreading the situation … and in fact, his unwillingness to sign an extension may have made him more likely to not be traded at all this summer.

I’ll go one step further. Not only do I believe he won’t be traded this summer, but my tea leaves arising from this indicate that the ONLY hope for another team to get him away from Toronto is going to be via a Sign-and-Trade in the summer of 2010.

Here's what has led to my conclusion.

Bosh's currently could get an extension with Toronto, but if he really wanted to leave he could have expressed an openness to being extended in the little-known Extend-and-Trade scenario (parallel to the Sign-and-Trade-type of deal). He did not.

That would explain why he hasn't really been negative about Toronto, even as he has expressed non-interest in an extension. This isn't about Toronto at all. It isn't a U-turn as some are making it out to be. Instead, it's just his continuation down a path already chosen by himself, LeBron, Wade, and others: To try to get locked into the longest deal possible that can be grandfathered into the coming 2011 CBA.

Why is length important to these top stars? Because there is strong anticipation that the next CBA may be quite a bit more restrictive on length-of-contract, max-player salaries, max raises from year-to-year, and so on. Therefore the thinking has become that the more years they can get using the current rules, the better they'll do.

Look at the difference:

*An extension today could only last through the 2013-14 season. At max limits, that would guarantee him another $62.8 million over his current locked-in dollars. 

*An extension done after July 1, 2009 could also include the 2014-15 season and would increase his total by over $87.7 million.

*But a full deal inked with his existing team next summer (after July 1, 2010) would last through the 2015-16 season and net an increase of almost $108.4 million to him.

As a result, I believe Bosh and a slew of the top stars (or, at least the ones with savvy agents) will all continue to patiently wait for the Summer of 2010 as the time to get a brand new deal.

And there’s one more money-making strategy they can use:

*Once the negotiations begin, a player wishing to switch teams shouldn’t just jump. He should push for a Sign-and-Trade deal. Why? Because the Sign-and-Trade can be written for one year longer (six) than the pure free-agent contract (which is limited to five years).

So the smart player in Bosh’s situation will: Not sign an extension now; Will not push for a trade now; Will hope to wait until after July 1, 2010 to agree to anything; And will – if he is truly unhappy in his present city – attempt to make a move via a Sign-and-Trade. … all of that guaranteeing him the most money for the most years with the team of his choice.

Obviously this leaves a degree of uncertainty for Toronto in the interim. But it also creates added risk for the Mavs or any potential partner in a Bosh trade. In Dallas’ case, the Mavs would have to give up a pile of assets to get him while knowing the “get’’ could be very short-term because the player is determined to become a free agent after one season.

In theory, a team could still do what it takes to make that plunge, but it makes it far more risky. … and therefore less likely.

My take remains the same as it was at the February trade deadline: the Mavs this summer need to accrue (not jettison) assets if they want to add a star in the Summer of 2010. If a team wants Bosh or any other potential 2010 free agent, the acquisition will most likely come via a 2010 Sign-and-Trade. Therefore, this summer that team should be doing everything it can to acquire desirable chips that might be swapped. Fill this year’s roster with as many young, talented, coveted trade pieces as possible, and hope they play so well in 2009-10 that the team climbs the standings while also putting assets in the bank that can be used on a blockbuster purchase in the Summer of 2010.