Mavs And Jazz On Boozer? We Say They'll Talk Again

Stein's Scoop, D-Lord's Predictions And The Smart Money On What's Next

Mike Fisher -- DB.com

   Allow me to brag on two of the finest NBA writers in the land: ESPN’s Marc Stein, who today breaks the story that the Mavs made a “long-shot attempt’’ to acquire Boozer from the Jazz. … and DallasBasketball.com’s David Lord, who has in recent weeks prognosticated almost to the letter what could/would happen in such trade talks.

   Stein’s coverage of the facts is eerily similar to Lord’s predictions of the event, and is worth a review here. Why?

   Because it says in this space that Boozer-to-Dallas will be discussed again.

   
    Three weeks ago, in an article here, DallasBasketball.com wrote the following:

    What about Carlos Boozer … in a Mav uniform? 

   Last summer Utah was shocked when Boozer decided not to opt out of his contract as he had sworn to do. The Jazz had already decided that Millsap - younger and much more affordable - would be their PF of the future, and had made plans to re-sign him to a new deal while letting Boozer simply walk away and sign with another team, thereby avoiding luxury tax. But with Boozer returning and his contract still on their books, keeping Millsap with his new contract sent their payroll far over the tax line. As a result, they looked for ways to simply get rid of Boozer - on the last year of his contract - in a way that would virtually erase that amount from their payroll and keep them from paying tax, but never found one. They were stuck with him for one more year.

   But that opportunity to avoid tax now exists for the Jazz in the wake of Tuesday's Utah-OKC trade in which they eliminated some of their tax obligation. Here's a speculative result: another Jazz trade, of Boozer to Dallas for Gooden-Humphries-Williams, which would get the Jazz entirely below the tax line once Gooden is waived.

  From Stein’s article today:

   Using Drew Gooden’s partially guaranteed contract and two players it wound up trading to the New Jersey Nets days later – Kris Humphries and Shawne Williams – Dallas could assemble a package of contracts high enough to reach the salary range of Boozer’s $12.3 million expiring contract to make the trade math work ... but low enough to net an initial savings of $2.5 million for the Jazz.

   One week ago, we noticed hints from the trade landscape that in some form D-Lord's idea might be on the table. Utah was said to be aggressively chasing (even expecting) a money-saving trade, and the very names he mentioned for the Mavs to offer were in trade rumors of the day. It looked too coincidental to us. So we imagined a Dallas-Utah conversation that would include a third team, the Nets, and Dallas getting Eddie Najera to throw into the Utah deal.

   Today comes Marc Stein reporting that the Mavs last week offered virtually the exact deal we originally theorized about. But Utah asked for more and the Mavs were unable or unwilling to provide it.

   While Stein doesn't mention it, we'd still wager -- as we guessed in our second article -- that the Najera-for-Humphries/Williams swap was an attempt to make a Boozer-for-savings deal more financially attractive to the Jazz ... and when that wasn't successful, the Mavs and Nets decided to do their end of it anyhow.

   What happens next? Stein reports that Utah wants everyone to know they value Boozer more than just a means to reducing their payroll.

    "Utah general manager Kevin O’Connor loudly insisted Monday that those of us who presume that the Jazz will do anything they can to get under the luxury-tax line between now and June 30 have it way wrong."

    But it's illuminating that prior to last week, the Jazz were said to be expecting to do a money-saving deal in a few days, and that this love for Boozer began just after Gooden's instant-expiring window closed.

    Coincidence? Of course not.

    Let us say this more clearly: Utah’s “commitment’’ to Boozer didn’t keep it from talking about swapping him. And Utah’s “commitment’’ seems to have strengthened now that Gooden’s contract makes it less attractive to them.

    Instead, we think what we're seeing is a GM who thought he could get not only savings but also talent for Boozer – good on O’Connor for trying -- and when it didn't happen he has to try to put the genie back in the bottle.

    That doesn't tell us how close it ever got to being a deal. Given the fact that -- in our analysis – the talks were substantial enough for the Mavs to get a third team (New Jersey) involved, that says Dallas thought it was getting somewhere.

  Purely guessing here on D-Lord's part, but inasmuch as Utah had just sent young point guard to OKC, could the Jazz have been trying to get rookie point guard Roddy Beaubois from Dallas, along with the savings?

   The smart money says that once trade talks like this fall through, both sides scramble to CYA, circle the wagons, say the right things to sooth all involved, and protect their properties. … but that the talks aren’t necessarily dead.

   What we’re hearing out of Utah today – “You guys (media) are so focused on the luxury tax. We’re not,’’ says O’Connor --  is simply GM-Speak … laying the groundwork to set up the receiving of better offers.

    Smart money? Boozer is still on the table. The Jazz is still negotiating, even while claiming how much they love him. If they don't get something before the mid-February deadline, they know a commodity in Carlos Boozer is probably walking in July ... and having just turned down a deal that would have put an extra $10 million in their owner's pocket, Utah is now under the gun to find something better.