Josh Howard: In Terms Of Wins And Losses, The 'X-Factor' Has Been A Zero

A Stunning Stat In The Standings That Pushes Mavs To Deadline Decision

David Lord -- DB.com

With player evaluation, we get so bogged down in details -- PER, matchups, stat lines, etc -- that sometimes we lose sight of the forest for the trees. But here's a very clear "forest" regarding Josh Howard:

The Mavs’ organizational gameplan this year included J-Ho being the final piece to the puzzle, the one that takes them up that final notch on the ladder where they can compete with LA or anyone on a consistent basis. In theory, that makes sense; you have a team that's playing fairly well without him; simply add that one extra piece with a lot of talent, and it should make them a lot better.

Right?
Well, maybe not.

As we get you ready for Mavs-at-Celtics in today's Mavs Afternoon Drive, check out this rather stunning stat and you see how the “X-Factor’’ has been an 0 factor.

And then follow up the numbers by considering the trade-deadline decision that is surely coming.

   The Mavs began this season with Josh mostly in street clothes, as he worked his way back from injury for as month or so. Without him, they logged a 13-7 record, which over 82 games would put them on pace for 53-54 wins and a likely 2nd-6th playoff seed in the West.

    But now he's back and has played quite a few games. With him added to the lineup, after Sunday in Toronto they are a glittering, wonderful, impressive (wait for it) … 13-7.

    Yep, that's right. The Mavs have the identical record with or without the player who was expected to be the X-Factor that would push them up the ladder by his addition, and with him starting they are now only 3-3. That's not good. And it implies that he is NOT the final missing piece to the Mavs' puzzle this season.

   On paper, he looks like he should be the right player this team needs ... and maybe he will be. Maybe with more play and a fine-tuning of roles, his impact will change for the better. But so far, he's not the answer.

   My guess is that the Mavs have seen the same thing, and are operating under an expedited "figure-it-out" instruction for Rick Carlisle. Can the coach, his staff (and Josh’s teammates) maximize his effectiveness in this way or that, as a sub or a starter? There's been no move to limit his minutes when he's been ineffective, and because time is short until the trade deadline when decisions must be made, that probably won't change.

   But if he's not the final piece, Dallas will have to make some long-term decisions quickly.

In June they have an option to keep him for another year (at $11.8M), and if they elect to exercise the option they could trade him with that year already in place. If they decline it, he'll become a free agent, and in July they could try to sign him or use him as a sign-and-trade piece to get something back in exchange. But their last opportunity to trade him without an additional contract of any kind attached beyond this season's is the Feb 19 trade deadline.

Even with his frequently erratic play this season, the Mavs do have choices here.

  Josh represents the exact kind of trade chip a team can do well with: he has an attractive $10.89M expiring contract which could allow another team to clear out sizable cap space for the summer and the future, and he has shown in the past that he is talented and can be a significant contributor. For another team, the opportunity is to move a big contract, take a flyer on him for a few months, see if he is worth keeping, and then work with his option or Bird Rights possibilities on him with no long-term obligation to keep him.

   Teams tend to get more anxious to make those payroll-clearing moves the closer they get to a deadline, so even if the Mavs are ready to move now, it's more likely that the best offers they'd find would be a few weeks away. That gives Rick Carlisle time to work all the angles and see if he has the right player or not.

   But if Josh Howard is not going to be the final piece to the puzzle for the Mavs, they need to find someone else that can be. The deadline is right in front of us, and unfortunately so is that huge forest.

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300pm jan 18 2010

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