Premature Ejamesculation

LeBron-To-Anywhere In 2010 Is But A Daydream

Mike Fisher -- DB.com

   “LeBron To Knicks Is A Done Deal.’’

    I’m calling this a severe case of Premature Ejamesculation. And I’m not only offering diagnoses … I’m also taking bets.

   Let’s start with the non-Knicks followers who are plagued by the condition. I give you the usually clear-thinking Dan Shanoff, who is on this bandwagon and buckled up tight. Dan is the fella who is writing, quite matter-of-factly, “LeBron To Knicks Is A Done Deal.’’ 

   So, like, it’s a million-to-one shot that LeBron ends up elsewhere? No consideration for who the Knicks coach is, or how they’re doing, or devotion to Cleveland, or if the Cavs are fresh off a title in the summer of 2010, or if Nike steers him to the West Coast, or if he likes Dallas’ weather, or if he’s got a wife by then who wants to live in Detroit, or injuries, the economy, global warming?

   A few months ago, wasn’t it a “done deal’’ that he would be a Net?

   A few months before that, didn’t he kinda pledge that he would stay a Cav?

   Time. Girls. Kids. Money. More time.

   Things change.

   Done deal? Automatic? A million-to-one shot?

   Fine. I’ve got a dollar says LeBron DOESN’T go to NY.

   Who’s putting up the mil? Shanoff?

    Unlike many of those who suffer from Premature Ejamesculation, I’m not letting emotion (or the hunger for hits, which can fuel headline-grabbing declarations) play a role in my analysis. Nor am I especially fired up because LeBron’s Cavs are at the Knicks tonight. (Though in the Big Apple, they are acting as if Dick Clark should do the countdown to tipoff.) My contentions are based on facts.

   For instance: Big-shot FAs in the NBA do not move. Or, at least, they do so rarely.

   There are maybe a dozen teams preparing to tell their fans to hang in there, keep buying tickets, have faith, because LeBron or DWade or Bosh or Yao or Joe Johnson or Amare or (gulp) Dirk will be coming to _________ town soon. But of the six or eight big shots who might be available that summer, how many will really move – to New York or elsewhere?

   History tells us that most guys re-up with their present teams. (That’s largely about the Benjamins, of course; nobody can pay FAs more than their present employers.) History also tells us that when somebody moves, it is to a mediocre team. … and that that team remains mediocre even after their ballyhooed signing. (See Davis, Baron, and the Clippers.) In fact, it’s usually the shuffling of deck chairs for those teams. Elton Brand leaves LAC for Philly, Davis leaves GS for LAC, Corey Maggette leaves LAC for GS.

   And Philly, LAC and GS are still mired somewhere in The Have-Not Jungle.

   One more thing: When one FA goes, he can logically replaced by another. If, for instance, LeBron departs Cleveland, that salary slot will not go unspent. LeBron will (almost certainly) be replaced by another max player.

    So. … free agents don’t move. When they do, they get replaced. And about having it all work out in a glorious way?

    A free-agent signing that led to a title? It’s happened with ONE guy. And his name was Shaq.

   So enjoy the fantasy, NBA have-nots. And enjoy getting waaaay ahead of yourselves. Pretend 2010 is NOW, as Peter the Viper does in writing that thanks to the Randolph salary dump, the Knicks’ Donnie Walsh is already locked in as this year’s NBA Exec of the Year.

   Yes, incredibly, he means for THIS season.

   Meanwhile, ESPN's Jalen Rose is trying to win the Rush To Judgment by insisting he has "very credible sources'' who say James and Bosh have already made up their NY-bound minds. (I love it when jocks "play'' reporter. Jalen Rose. Working sources. Notepad in his hand. Hands ink-stained. Yelling "Stop the presses!'' Press pass in his fedora. Riiiiiiight.)  

    Ah, ignorant jubilation. Premature Ejamesculation. Ain’t it sweet?

   My prediction? Oh, I’m going to say LeBron is somewhere between a) choosing an apartment in Manhattan

 (Geez, The Big Lead, please tell me this is meant at least a little bit tongue-in-cheek) and b) wondering if he can’t lure FAs to Cleveland. Has anybody considered that? Instead of LeBron being the starting point of a good team in NY, maybe he will consider continuing a winning tradition in his home state by helping Amare/Wade/Bosh come to Lake Erie?

   Why not? There is no “why not.’’ There is just speculation. Another 500 or so days of speculation. (I'm so happy to see that at least Skeets joins me in getting this.)

   I will say this: If the Mavs were totally bogged down in hopeless suckage, I guess we’d do the same thing: Daydream our way to 2010. As it is, I want the Mavs to continue to contend AND to be a player in the 2010 Sweepstakes.

   "2010 is a big summer, a really big summer," James said this weekend. "It's two years away, but time goes fast. We'll see. We'll see what happens. You laugh at it and you watch what's going on, we'll see what happens.''

    Yes, I do laugh at it. But heck. ... I guess I want LeBron and Bosh.

    That’s all we need to do, right, is say it out loud? Because that’s all New York is doing. Is talking. Belly-button gazing. Twiddling thumbs. Daydreaming. Premature Ejamesculating.

nov 25 2008