Mavs-at-Kings: Asking Yoda Of The Hardwood

   Jason Kidd is a Yoda of the Hardwood, a barometer of team temperature, a basketball savant. So as the Mavs deal with four obstacles to winning tonight in Sacramento, we’ll let Dallas’ veteran Answer Man offer up solutions to the issues:

     ISSUE 1: The expected absence of Josh Howard:

    The Kidd money quote: “We hope he’s not out as all. But we’ve been in this situation before.’’

    Howard injured his wrist in the blowout loss at Phoenix on Friday and is not expected to play. The only solace Dallas takes from this is that in an earlier 11-game period when Josh (due to ankle problems) was unavailable, the Mavs managed to have a 9-2 record.

    Mavs watchers will spend the day wondering who plays in Howard’s stead. Start Jason Terry, who is going to finish anyway? Reward energetic James Singleton with the starting 3 job and use Antoine Wright (or, less stimulating, Devean George) at the 2?

   A decent bet: J.J. Barea, who would provide Dallas a third scoring threat in the starting lineup and also matches up well with Sacto PG Beno Udrih, who doesn’t play “big’’ -- and recently, doesn’t play well, either.

    (Sidebar: Marc Stein of ESPN is suggesting that J-Ho trade talk exists. This is no sea-change revelation to me, but as long as we’re discussing alterations to the lineup, I thought it worth throwing on the pile as something done before the February deadline would represent a rather permanent alteration.)

    A fans’ wild-card wish (or at least the coming Debate O’ The Day)? Considering just how awful Sacto has been, and considering how Dallas needs some sort of energy injection, and considering his electric few minutes at the end of the Phoenix game. … why not remove the protective wrapping from Gerald Green?

    Yes, yes, he was erratic to start his mop-up stint against the Suns. But hell, the Mavs lost by 28 – and we’re going to make G-Money the whipping post because he committed a couple of turnovers? In the span of 181 fourth-quarter seconds, the kid exploded for 11 points.

    That doesn’t earn him a morsel of a chance? What would he need to do in those 181 seconds to persuade the powers-that-be that with a Howard-sized hole in the rotation, Green merits consideration?

    I’m not predicting this. I’m just sayin’. Coincidentally, Dallas’ last meeting with Sacto – a 101-78 victory back on Nov. 29– was the beginning of the end of Gerald’s promising stint as a starter. He was 1-of-8 from the floor that night, started one more game after that, but hasn’t played “real’’ minutes in a game since that night against the Kings.

    Rick? Time for a second chance?

    ISSUE 2: The overuse of Dirk Nowitzki:

    The Kidd money quote: “I’m not so much worried about the minutes. … We haven’t had too many blowouts, so we’ve got to find time to get some rest.’’

    Jeff Caplan of the Star-Telegram does a good job breaking down the increased burden on Nowitzki, who a season ago was managed down to about 36 minutes per under coach Avery Johnson but is now being asked to play nearly 38.

    You gotta do what you gotta do, and every Mavs observer is sitting on the edge of his seat this season every time an opponent goes on a run while The UberMan is getting a blow. Obviously, Carlisle is sitting on the edge of his seat, too.

    Which is why so frequently Dirk isn’t on his seat.

    But Kidd’s point about this issue is reiterated by Nowitzki, who saliently notes: “You just need some easy games once in a while. The Memphises, the Charlottes, the New Yorks, all those games we played down to the wire, so we’ve got to play big minutes. Some of the teams we should beat we let them hang around, and that comes back to hurt you.’’

     Notably, you know when I think was the last time Dallas was able to smoke an early victory cigar by sitting Dirk? Correct me if I’m wrong, but it might’ve been back on Nov. 29 – yes, that last meeting with these same Kings.

    ISSUE 3: The shooting slump of Dallas’ top players:

    The Kidd money quote: “You have to erase your floppy disk and become a shooter or scorer.’’

    I’m cheating here, because Kidd didn’t say this about the Sacto game and he didn’t say it about Dirk/Jet. He uttered this gem on Tuesday after the win over the Knicks, and he was talking about himself.

     But the point holds: A missing starter. Added minutes. Shooting slumps.

     Somebody’s got to erase the “floppy disk.’’ (And while they’re at it, J-Kidd, maybe we can all play some “Pong’’?  J )

    First to the problem, and it’s quite possibly cause-and-effect: Dirk’s minutes burden has increased. Jason Terry’s minutes burden (31 last year, 35 this year) has increased.

    And so, maybe, theoretically, they go off into a shooting ditch? (I’m spit-ballin’ here.)

    Jet is a 20-ppg guy who is the leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate and a likely All-Star honorable mention off the strength of that fact. But in the last three games, Terry isn’t at 20 ppg. He’s at 10 ppg. And while he made the game-sealing shots in two victories this week, his shooting in the last three games is at 29 percent shooting.

   That’s been accompanied by a similar dip from Nowitzki. In his last two games, Dirk is 14.5 points per. As with Terry, that’s about 10 points below his average.

    And suddenly the Mavs are 20 points short. … almost 40 points short when you account for the J-Ho slack that needs to be picked up.

     Picked up by somebody changing their floppy disk. Or their 8-track player. Or their game of “Pong.’’

     ISSUE 4: The need to crush the have-nots:

    The Kidd money quote: “We’ve got to win the games we’re supposed to win.’’

    Sacramento is 8-29. Now, my man Bob Ortegel will spent tonight’s 8 p.m. telecast cautioning that Sacto is dangerous, that Kevin Martin (averaging almost 30 ppg in his last six games and averaging 30.7 ppg in the three games he played against Dallas last season) “can do that.’’

    But Sacto is 8-29. Sacto has not won a game in this calendar year, has lost five straight games and 11 of 12. Sacto has lost eight of nine meetings with the Mavs, who are 22-14 and ought to be able to count this as a “supposed-to-win.’’

   And it doesn’t take a basketball savant to know that.

501am jan 11 2009