The Carroll/Hollins Trade: What It Didn't Do

Here's my view of the Mavs' DeSagana Diop-for-Matt Carroll/Ryan Hollins deal, featuring the talent ramifications and the cap ramifications and the most important aspect of it. … What it didn’t do, in a positive sense:

There's no question that the Mavs have needed to make a trade, and have been working hard to do so. (And according to Fish, continue to do so.) But if they see this trade as The Trade, then it's bad. The Trade has to upgrade the talent significantly, and this merely adds a couple of role players. At some point, they have to find a big addition of talent (if prior to 2010, it's The Trade) - and this swap of scrubs isn't it.

However as just a modest and minor move while simultaneously looking for The Trade, I must admit I like this one. It's a plus.

The Mavs have been shooting 3s by the buckets this season, in large part because other teams are backing off and willingly giving open 3s to this gang that can't shoot straight.

Carroll is the kind of shooter that -- if he regains his form -- will help solve that problem (he's shot over 40 percent from the arc in his career). At 6-6, he's also big enough to be a legitimate 2-guard. And while the Mavs gave up their backup center in the deal to get him, Diop had regressed this season and wasn't giving them anything. And they also got back Hollins (another young 7-foot center) with some potential; the same could’ve been said about Diop when he first came here, so it’s a start-over in that sense.

Some see the athletic Hollins as a project. (Some YouTube highlights; judge for yourself.)  But to me, his inclusion in the swap means the Mavs don't necessarily have to go looking for depth at center in a subsequent trade. Giving up on Diop and hoping for Hollins is sort of a one-step-forward/one-step-back thing, of course. We had high hopes for ‘Gana, and so did the organization that pined for him after sending him to New Jersey 11 months ago. They showed that hope by giving him the MLE to come back, and by hinting to DallasBasketball.com that he would end up being the starter here.

Instead, Diop in 2008 goes down as a non-contributor.

This could be viewed as Diop-for-Hollins (a fair swap?) with Carroll as the bonus. At the risk of "spinning,'' that seems fairly positive.

At the very least, if you add it all together, they traded a non-contributor (albeit one they’d made a commitment to and have now backpedaled from) for two "maybe's." That works for me.

What if Carroll shoots lights out? Could this be The Trade? Nah, let's don't get carried away. He's been in the league long enough that we know his upside, and he just doesn't have enough all-around skills to ever be a major "impact player." But if he can shoot, that alone will help a lot.

Besides the talent swap, I see two other positive angles to this trade.

First, they gave themselves a bit more cap room for 2010, in that Carroll's long-term deal is about $2.2M less for 2010-11 than Diop's. That means that even though Diop's $6.5M 2010-11 obligation wasn't entirely erased, they did manage to get it lowered by over a third (to $4.3M). If they do end up aiming for a free agent that summer, an extra $2.2M could prove to be very useful. 

But to me the most important aspect of this trade is what it DIDN'T do. It didn't waste any of their primary trade assets (Stackhouse's contract, Bass, and perhaps Josh Howard) on a minor trade, even though they accomplished their goal of finding a way to move Diop.

The previously rumored trades with Charlotte included Stackhouse going to OKC, and while Raymond Felton (who was the best player coming to Dallas in those rumors) might be a bit more promising than Carroll, he certainly wouldn't have been the missing piece they've needed. The Mavs also would have been saddled with the contract of Nazr Mohammed if those earlier versions had come to fruition; his contract was about as bad as Diop's and his play wasn't worth a hoot.

We get a real shot at evaluating the play of Carroll and Hollins on Monday in Philadelphia. The two are scheduled to arrive in Dallas this weekend but are not expected to play tonight against the Jazz.

But my evaluation for now?

With this version of a Diop trade, the Mavs have retained their pieces in order to target a difference-maker in what we hope will be “The Trade.’’ Because it allows the chance to continue to hope they can actually turn those assets into the upgrades that are so needed for their future, I applaud that.

819am jan 17 2009