Shaq To Mavs Or Cavs? Three Million Reasons Why The Suns Will Prefer To Deal With Dallas

   There is thumbs-up confirmation from both Arizona and Cleveland that the Suns and Cavs are re-opening Shaq talks. Meanwhile, we’ve got a thumbs-angling-down from Mark Cuban on the possibility of the long-standing, long-distance Mavs-Shaq love affair being consummated.

   “I don't know that we have the contracts that could equal his salary without it costing me a boatload of money,’’ says the Mavs owner.

   But something doesn’t add up here: According to our calculations, the Suns’ reportedly-discussed deal with Cleveland would save cash-and-tax-strapped Phoenix an amount that is $3 million LESS than Phoenix can save by doing a Dallas replica of what’s being offered by Cleveland.

   So there are lukewarm denials. … but there is also smoke, fire and money.  … essentially, there are three millions reasons for Phoenix to attempt to swap Shaq to the Mavs.

    *We no longer believe we need to make a case for the mutual admiration that exists between Cuban and O’Neal. (Save us some time; Google “Shaq,’’ “Cuban’’ and “DallasBasketball.com’’ and you’ll be up all night.)

    *The Cavs’ trade-deadline pursuit of Shaq was very real. … probably more real that Dallas-Phoenix talks at the time. Why? Conceivably, the Suns didn’t want to swap with a Western Conference foe, and then see Shaq-as-Mav do down-the-stretch damage to Phoenix.

    *The Cavs’ discussions with Phoenix now are very real. The story is everywhere, re-originated by the fine beat writer Paul Coro in the Arizona Republic …

    *But smartly brake-tapped here by Cavs beat writer Brian Windhorst, who we think accurately states that this is all very preliminary.

    Consider what Cuban said in the Galloway interview regarding mock drafts and draft rumors:

    “It's still too far away for any of those to have any real meaning.’’

     The same thing applies here: There is no “Shaq deal.’’ Not in Cleveland. Not in Dallas. Not anywhere. Not yet.

    *What is Cleveland purportedly offering? Ben Wallace/Sasha Pavlovic – so it’s just a money dump. But it’s not enough money, not compared to the money dump that Dallas could (would?) offer. The Wallace/Sasha proposal would save the Suns almost $3 MILLION LESS than if they traded Shaq to the Mavs for Erick Dampier/Jerry Stackhouse.

    *So what are the motivations here? Is Dallas less in love with Shaq that ever before? (Possibly, and especially if Shaq has whispered that he’d sure like a fat contract extension.) Is Cuban feigning disinterest to avoid any perception of tampering? (Wise.) Are the Suns still reluctant to swap O’Neal within the conference? (We’ve always thought that was pound-foolish.)

    Are the Suns being open about their talks with the Cavs – at least three mainstream media sources were right on the Arizona Republic’s heels with this scoop, suggesting that Phoenix all-but sent out fliers to announce their renewed interest -- in an attempt to entice a better deal from the Mavs?

    Aha.

    Just as Cuban might be trying to downplay his interest in spending (he certainly wouldn’t want to spend a “boatload of money,’’ would he?), the Suns might be trying to “up-play’’ the market for Shaq.

    Look for the Suns to try to squeeze some talent out of the Mavs and Cavs. But short of that ... if the Mavs want Shaq, a Mavs offer of Damp/Stack is the superior offer.

    If Dallas gives up Erick Dampier plus the contract of Jerry Stackhouse, the Suns save about $6.88 million in payroll for 2009-10, and the same amount in tax. That’s substantially better than the Cleveland offer and it’s likely to be the best deal Phoenix ever sees for Shaq.

   Which means the "Shaq deal'' -- when it actually becomes one -- just might come down to the Mavs' level of desire, Mark Cuban's “boatload’’ and Dallas' ability to offer three million reasons.