NBA 'Nuclear Winter' And The Two Mark Cubans

   There are two Mark Cubans.

   There is Mark Cuban The Sportsman. That Mark Cuban excitedly tweeted today: “Busy night tonight! Lots of midnight calls and meetings for our staff tonight. Ding Ding Ding NBA Free Agency is about to begin!’’

    There is Mark Cuban The Businessman. That Mark Cuban told me back in February: “In ’09, it could be a nuclear winter.’’

    The NBA’s Personnel Shopping Window opens on July 1 (11 p.m. tonight in Dallas) and for both the Mavs and the entire league, the circumstances involving the freedom of Jason Kidd and Brandon Bass are among the guinea pigs. What we will learn from the dealings with Kidd and Bass and more include: 1) Dallas’ power of persuasion, 2) Dallas’ asset manipulation, and 3) Dallas’ ability to deal in this “nuclear winter’’ market. And a lot of what happens will be the result of who wins the debate when Mark Cuban The Sportsman and Mark Cuban The Businessman have private conversations with each other.

   “Getting ready to fly up to NYC for Free Agent meeting at 12:01,’’ Cuban tweeted this afternoon.

    The trip is designed (at least in part) to court Kidd. His decision (likely to take a three-year deal from Dallas that might be in the $8-mil-a-year range or to take a one-year MLE deal elsewhere worth about $5 mil) will dictate everything the Mavs do from here. (And underpublicized option for Kidd: Would he sign a one-year deal with the hope that he benefits from the wide-open Summer of 2010?) If Kidd remains in Dallas, the Mavs save some Devin Harris-related face, they avoid losing an asset for nothing, they retain a core piece that figures to lure another player or two, and they are free to move onto their next order of business.

    There is no indication that Kidd intends to play dirty here – quite the contrary – but if he decides to drag his feet or to skip out without helping Dallas facilitate a Sign-and-Trade, the Mavs’ progress in a number of departments might be stalled.

    Kidd lives in NY and is therefore reportedly meeting with the Knicks on July 1. But Cuban is going to The Big Apple with the intention of being first to Jason’s doorstep. The Mavs hope that sort of commitment is reciprocated.

    In short, the much ballyhooed “relationships’’ that Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson are credited with forging with players and staff needs to pay off here. … with a lot of guys. … but for starters, with their own Hall-of-Fame team captain.

   Jason Kidd represents a test case in an attempt to prove that “players really do like being in Dallas.’’

    DALLAS’ ASSET MANIPULATION

    Names and news items are already flying about.

    Devean George is re-upping.  … Ron Artest might now be part of Hopeless Houston’s salary dump … Carlos Boozer is staying in Utah  … Cleveland is pinpointing Charlie Villanueva (does that decrease Dallas’ competition for Rasheed Wallace or Antonio McDyess or Anderson Varejao?) … FinDog is hanging on with the Spurs. … Detroit has fired coach Michael Curry in an effort to be more attractive to FA’s (and maybe to its own Rip Hamilton).

    Did I mention that 'Sheed seems to have a liking for Dallas?

    All of these are Chess pieces, or potential Chess pieces, to the Mavs. A year ago, the Mavs’ “asset maniputation’’ netted them ‘Gana Diop … for the entire MLE. … and we know how that turned out. Infamously, the Mavs’ handling of the Chess piece that was Steve Nash turned out to be another sort of disappointment.

    The Mavs need to do a much better job of tea-leaf reading.

    This is a game not only of recruiting but also of know-how, instinct and connections. Who is in play? Which teams are the competition? Who is buying and who is selling? Who has the cap space to be impactful? The inside track here can belong to Detroit. They could conceivably sign two big shots. OKC is also in play – but there’s an issue there. The Thunder must juggle the fact that it wants to retain some financial flexibility for when its present crop of kids, led by Kevin Durant, come up for new deals. Memphis and Atlanta have space, but maybe not cash. And of course, New Orleans and Phoenix are among the good teams that might be dumping valued players instead of paying them.

    But the Mavs possess The Stack Chip, which if positioned correctly can be a Holy Grail of sorts. Erick Dampier’s expiring has value. George re-upping could make him a trade throw-in.

    There are some tools to work with here.

    THE NUCLEAR WINTER EFFECT

     “I think we’ll see a lot of guys, anticipating 2010 and also with an eye to a new collective-bargaining agreement, sign one-year deals,’’ Cuban told me in February. “While everybody is clearing room for 2010, I’m looking for bargains for ’09. As people wait to make their move in 2010, there

 could be a lot of one-year deals.’’

    The NBA has certainly been subjected to belt-tightening.

     This is why Brandon Bass represents another test case – but this one has league-wide ramifications.

      The Mavs have Early Bird Rights on Bass, so they can offer him a contract up to the average salary/MLE amount without having to use the exception to pay him that much. He's a unrestricted free agent, so he’s fully free to shop himself.
    There was a time when someone like Bass might’ve been subject to a bidding war. But in this market? The Mavs certainly hope the “Nuclear Winter Effect’’ takes hold. … leaving him to stay in Dallas for that same MLE-type salary in a way that doesn’t negatively affect Dallas’ cap.

    (By the way: Forget anything you read about Bass “considering many factors’’ this summer. There are two factors: Play and pay. Brandon was not satisfied with his role under coach Rick Carlisle. If the Mavs want him back, it’ll take play and pay.)

    No NBA owner wants to win more than Mark Cuban. He is crushed by losses on the court. … but the competitive businessman in him wants to win off the court, as well. The Mavs don’t even blink at paying the luxury tax, but you sense there is a newfound level of fiscal responsibility when it comes to the old habit of tossing $3 million “sweeteners’’ into trades and when it comes from the old habit of listening to Nellie-style advice (which basically was, “Buy, buy, buy, we NEED that!’’)

    Instead, in theory, the Cuban-led Mavs’ wherewithal should allow Dallas to take advantage of the “have-nots.’’ Dallas ownership is well-aware of its fan base’s “do-something’’ wish … both because there are championships to contend for and tickets to sell.

     Wins. And tickets. See? That’s The Businessman and The Sportsman, needing to work together.

    I believe we’re about to see Cuban The Businessman work in conjunction with Cuban The Sportsman in an attempt to prove that the Mavs are “persuasively attractive,’’ that the Mavs are capable of at least two impactful “asset manipulation’’ moves and that the Mavs are about to turn up the heat on the NBA’s “nuclear winter.’’