No Artest? No Ariza? Who's Got Next? A Mavs' Strategy To Use 'The Stack Chip' To Outbid For Players Who Want A Raise From The MLE

   We wondered earlier where the “Nuclear Winter’’ went and melted off to. Well, let’s re-check that landscape. … In addition to the notable trades having been salary-dump-motivated, we are witnessing an odd and rare phenomenon with free agents: Normally, after a little flirting, they run right back to their previous teams and re-up. But this week?

   Teams are throwing the “big fish’’ back into the free-agent pond.

   And the Mavs suddenly have a very unusual and attractive opportunity to use The Stack Chip.

   Ariza and then Artest? Artest and then Ariza? Both of them off the market as they move to each others’ former employer? Fine. Give us the next guy on the list. For the purpose of this angle, you can ink the available FA’s however you like; thanks to The Stack Chip, the Mavs will be bidding -- and should be winning – somebody of that lofty caliber.  

    In a normal economic NBA climate, when you have a $7-to-$10-mil-a-year player on your roster who comes free, and you value him, you sign him, you keep him, no muss, no fuss.

   But in this year’s “Nuclear Winter’’? What Mark Cuban told DB.com last February is dead-on.

   How in the heck is a 29-year-old team MVP candidate like Ron Artest being allowed to shop himself …for what might be half the price he originally planned on?

   How in the heck is a young stud on a title team like Trevor Ariza allowed to feel unwanted by the regal Lakers. … and now finds himself slumming for MLE money with a verbal commitment to Houston? 

   We can go on and on, because the list of extremely capable NBA free agents who are finding themselves begging for the MLE is extremely long. (Rasheed Wallace, maybe Lamar Odom, maybe Shawn Marion … all subject to being thrown back in the pond.)

    We can also go on and on about teams’ behaviors. Houston doesn’t want to give the full MLE to Gortat. New York is tip-toeing to a commitment to Kidd. The Miami Heat announced they won’t be using the MLE at all. We bet many of the teams that are talking MLE’s are offering partial MLE’s or one-year deals, in part due to their Yen for ’10.

    But let’s stop at Ariza and Artest. And let’s stop at the Mavs.

    The formula is a matter of non-linear creativity – and because it’s probably not part of Dallas’ original plan with The Stack Chip, an example of Cuban’s belief in “organic management.’’ Let’s use Ariza as an example:

   *Ariza wants out of LA and LA isn’t willing to pay him even the full MLE

   *Ariza finds himself negotiating with the Rockets and, for the sake of argument, let’s say they are willing to spent the $5.5 mil on him for the full MLE

    *The Mavs step in and explain to Ariza that he needn’t settle for those “Nuclear Winter’’ dollars – that they have a way of getting him $7 million a year

    *The Mavs talk Sign-and-Trade with the Lakers. Dallas offers The Stack Chip (meaning 2010 cap room), plus cash (paying for Stack’s $2 mil payoff and helping to fortify LA’s bank account), plus a player (any second-tier Mav will do)

    *If accepted, Ariza gets paid like a true, old-school free agent ($7-mil-plus instead of $5-mil-plus) … and he gets paid by one of the few teams willing and able to pull off such a trick.

    Again, this doesn’t have to happen with Ariza. We think it’d be nice; the Rockets have other ideas. (If the numbers on the Rockets’ agreement with Ariza are correct, … $33 mil for five years. … that’s $6.6 million a year and three million less than he could’ve received from Dallas in the above Stack Chip scenario.)

    But it can – and should – happen with somebody who wasn’t previously considered “affordable’’ to the Mavs.

    Skeptical?

     Grab a legal pad and a No. 2 pencil. Now, in the left-hand column, Make a list of the top available bodies (in one form or another) who are free to Dallas to examine (not counting Jason Kidd, who doesn’t count against the Mavs). Rank ‘em, however subjectively, however arbitrarily. …

Carlos Boozer

Ron Artest

Lamar Odom

Rasheed Wallace

Paul Millsap

David Lee

Josh Childress

Hedo Turkoglu

Trevor Ariza

Shawn Marion

Andre Miller

Mike Bibby

Anderson Varejao

Antonio McDyess

Ramon Sessions

Marvin Williams (edit)

Nate Robinson

Brandon Bass

Allen Iverson

Raymond Felton

Grant Hill

Marcin Gortat

Chris Andersen

Drew Gooden

Zaza Pachulia

Anthony Parker

Marquis Daniels

Matt Barnes

Wally Szczerbiak

Lorenzen Wright

Joe Smith

Hakeem Warrick

Channing Frye

Linus Kleiza

Leon Powe

Glen Davis

Ike Diogu

   What’s that, 40 guys? Forty fish in the pond? (We know, we know, you don’t want Lorenzen Wright. Fine. Draw a line of demarcation under the group that you DO want.)

   Now, how many teams have fishing rods (cap space, cash or a go-for-it approach?) Again, rank ‘em and write them down the right-side of the page:

Oklahoma City

Portland

Cleveland

Boston

Lakers

Toronto

Dallas

San Antonio

   What’s that? Seven fishing poles? And 30 fish?

   Do the math.

   Some of those guys on the list we’ve assembled are restricted and slightly more likely to return to their existing ponds. But most are being thrown back into the pond.

   Some teams have unique situations that may extend the “fishing pole’’ list beyond six. The Knicks, Rockets, Magic, Hornets and Pacers seem to be toe-dippers here. And one more thing: It’s conceivable that somebody could double-up by offering partial-MLE’s.

   But seven fisherman and 10 or 20 or 30 or 40 fish means the fishermen are going to get something on their hooks. Run your pencil down the left-hand list. Match up ONE guy with ONE team.

   Artest to LA? There goes one.

   Ariza to Houston? There goes two.

  At some point you arrive at the name of Available Player X and your Dallas Mavericks. And it’s a match!

    In the case of the Mavs, they have the bait to make a difference to Available Player X and to his former team. It’s The Stack Chip. (And yes, in answer to a common DB.com Boards question, the Mavs ARE well aware of the concept we’re laying out here.)

   The Stack Chip can give another team a chance to not lose their player for nothing, but most importantly it can give a coveted player a $7 million contract in a Nuclear Winter environment where $5.6 million seems tough to get.

     Artest has felt insulted by money his whole career. Ariza feels insulted now. The Mavs’ task now is to use The Stack Chip as “feel-good story of the summer’’ … even though it’s supposed to be a Nuclear Winter.

 

 

Follow us at twitter.com/fishsports

Discuss this story at DB.com Boards

924p july 2 2009

 

                                                            

---

---