'The Buck Shot': 9 Takes As 9/9/9 Window Opens

   So is “Buck Shot Day’’ going to feel more like “Independence Day’’ or more like “Groundhog Day’’? Is what DallasBasketball.com has done with the Sept. 9 opening to the window to aggregating Greg Buckner’s vanishing contract a case of “overhyping’’ or just “over-reporting’’? What are the Mavs shooting for here? While fans want a Stephen Jackson, would a Kurt Thomas be enough? Oh, and what the heck is “The Buck Shot’’ again, anyway?

   On 09/09/09, I offer Nine Takes On “The Buck Shot’’ and what it all means:

   If the Mavs weren’t exploring trades for him, he’d already be cut.

   See how easy that was?

   Just to be clear: As I write this ... at 10:12 a.m. on Sept. 9, 2009 ... the Mavs are in exploratory talks. Right now.

   2 Because it’s so creative (and because we reported its existence during this looooong offseason from actually Mavs basketball) it has certainly become quite a cause celeb, especially for CBA Nerds who appreciate the nuts-and-bolts of a handsomely-written contract.

    But let’s not forget, shortly after the initial report, we chased down Mavs GM Donnie Nelson, who said bluntly, “We can release Buck. It’s an option.’’

   That would be a disappointment, of course. It’s an asset. We’d like to see all assets utilized to their fullest. We’d like somebody to do something!

   As one source just told me: "There are a lot of (possible) deals that can make sense.''

    But there does exist the possibility that the “just-right-deal’’ – one that matches up with The Buck Shot, one Dallas considers affordable and one that the Mavs consider a roster fit – fails to pop up.

   And if that happens, the Mavs release Greg Buckner sometime before Nov. 30 (the date when his contract mushrooms into fully-guaranteed), pocket the savings for themselves and ...

    3 Move onto the next chip.

    Dallas has lined up an assortment of vanishing contracts, expiring contracts, do-it-by-this-date contracts and super-expirings. Think of them all as if they are stuffed into a bullet belt. Not all bullets hit their mark. Not all bullets even get fired. But if they shoot one ... and it doesn’t hit its mark. ... they have another to fire. And another. And another.

     Even if (God forbid!) The Buck Shot runs out of shelf life, the Mavs can try to then utilize Drew Gooden’s tricky half-‘n’-half contract as a lure. If that doesn’t work, there is the bunch of one-year deals that might work at the February trade deadline. And ultimately, of course, next July, there is The DUST Chip.

     The Buck Shot isn’t the be-all, end-all. It’s one of many assets the Mavs can attempt to use to find that “one more guy,’’ that “one more rotation player’’ that we (and the Mavs themselves) keep talking about.

    4 What we’d all love to see: The Buck Shot transformed into a huge something-for-nothing talent upgrade, as was the case with The Stack Chip-for-Shawn Marion.

     Names on that wish list?

     Let’s round up The Usual Suspects.

     *The Mavs like Raymond Felton in Charlotte. But we think he’s a free agent in a pinch and will probably end up staying with the Bobcats with a one-year deal.

     *The Mavs would be intrigued by Stephen Jackson, the captain who wants to jump the Warriors ship. Nellie will be talking to Dallas at some point, but he’d prefer to move something else to the Mavs rather than Capt. Jack. In fact, he’d prefer to move Monta Ellis.

     *In my conversations with Dallas officials, they express sincere confidence in what Josh Howard can do as the starting 2 and in what Jason Terry brings at the same position as the sixth man. So finding a “huge upgrade’’ at that position would seem to represent something other than a Michael Redd (a $35 mil contract and an injury risk). Would Mike Miller represent “huge’’? Would Raja Bell?

     5 Why not wish “big’’? The Mavs have an open secret regarding the center position: Erick Dampier can do some things and Drew Gooden can do other things and when Dallas is closing out the game, Dirk Nowitzki/Shawn Marion are going to be the 4/5.

    But there are intriguing bigs who have been or will be shopped.

    Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby of the Clippers. Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf of the Warriors. Emeka Okafor of the Hornets. Tyson Chandler of the Bobcats. Samuel Dalembert of the Sixers. And (mmmmmm) Carlos Boozer of the Jazz.

     6 OK, how about if The Buck Shot doesn’t net Dallas a starting-caliber player, but instead simply a rotation player ... or just a useful player? More suspects:

    *We can go younger here with Kelenna Azubuike of the Warriors, we can go older here with Kurt Thomas of the Bucks ... or we can go anywhere in between. When it comes to giving a cash-poor or cap-poor team relief in exchange for a non-star, the possibilities become almost endless.

     *The Mavs would love to acquire someone who, unlike Ellis or Redd, is on the final year of a deal. Buckner for a rent-a-player ... and then a clean slate in the summer of 2010 ... that’s an ideal scenario.

     Let's focus on Milwaukee's Kurt Thomas for a moment. He plays the right position. (Center). He plays for the right team. (Milwaukee, with whom the Mavs have a relationship.) He makes the right amount of money ($3.8 mil) and when does his contract expire?

    After this year. Bingo.

     7 Are there specific teams to explore? Let’s continue to be on the lookout for teams that not only have logjams at certain positions, but also teams that are non-contenders with financial woes. Let’s also keep in mind that as anxious as we are for somebody to do something ... it is conceivable that some teams might want to wait until nearer to Nov. 30 before they concede to their status as non-contenders.

    *One more lookout: Frequent Mavs trade talkers/partners. Charlotte is a friendly Mavs dealer. Over the years, Golden State has been that. New Jersey is that. Toronto now is that ... and hey, that Marcus Banks thing sure went mysteriously underground in a hurry, didn’t it?

   Oh, and did I mention Milwaukee?

     8 And what would the Mavs be giving up in proposed deals?

     It’s worth noting that there could already be a deal done in principle, but one that cannot be formalized until today. (I have no indication that such is the case, but our ears stay to the ground here. ...) It’s also worth noting that the only time you hear names like Josh Howard’s thrown into media gossip regarding The Buck Shot is when the media member lacks an understanding of how this works.

    It is not the Mavs’ intention to give up a standout player; it is the Mavs’ intention to attempt to acquire one.

    In terms of talent, the “expendable’’ player we’ve speculated about most is JJ Barea, a rotation player with a cheap contract ($1.68 mil) that is in its final year. Together, Buckner, Barea, Carroll, Humphries, Williams and Jawai add up to about $16.5 million in trade salary and $29.5 million in total long-term salary (with about $13.5 million being paid in 2009-10).   

     We can be certain that when teams are looking for a third wheel in a trade, they will consider involving the Mavs, who can be versatile in terms of facilitating other clubs’ deals and maybe receiving a talent boost for their trouble.  

     9 Why is this such a big whoop again? Why is Buckner’s contract so valuable? Isn’t the deal that Dallas can simply cut him and pay only $1 million this season and save $4.1 million off the payroll?

     That is the deal. It’s just a few million bucks as it stands. But as a refresher, here’s the formula for what can be done:

    *In a simple 1-for-1 trade: With Buckner's contract the Mavs can take back up to $5.1 million in salary and the other team can pocket the savings, erasing it by paying only $1 million this season, instantly saving them $4.1 million off their payroll and salary cap.

    *In a more complex deal the formula can be this: The Buck Shot + ____(small Mavs contracts)  =  _______(an NBA player whose team doesn’t want to pay him $9 mil)

     Now, back to the cynics who predict that the odds are there won’t be such a trade are …the cynics are correct.

     Respectfully, let me suggest that guessing that a deal WON’T happen is ALWAYS the smart guess, on any trade issue. It takes the right teams, the right players, the right money, the right fit, the right timing, the right mood … getting all of those planets aligned is ALWAYS less likely.

    At the same time, compared to any of the other many trade notions that are being discussed throughout the NBA at this moment, The Buck Shot is MORE likely to result in a trade than any of them. It is still The Summer of Nuclear Winter, there are still teams in search of cap relief, the Mavs are desirous of another piece and The Buck Shot is a contract designed by the Mavs and re-acquired by the Mavs for the express purpose of trading it.

    So SOME of the planets are already aligned.