Part 1: Barea Vs. Beaubois As +/-'s For The Mavs

In this first of a two-part series, we analyze the +/- stats on the two young Mavs guards. Coming up Friday: Part 2: Jason Kidd Helps DB.com Crunch The +/- Numbers on Barea Vs. Beaubois.

    I’ve got expert testimony from Brandon Jennings and I’ve got statistical evidence from the last two Mavs games and … I’ve got to see a little less of J.J. Barea.

   “I think,’’ said prized Bucks rookie guard Jennings of prized Mavs rookie guard Roddy Beaubois, “he is the future for that team.’’

   The 75-Member Staff has cobbled together a statistical analysis of Barea’s performance as Dallas “third guard’’ (behind Jason Kidd and Jason Terry) vs. Beaubois’ performance in what is essentially the same role. The results are, I believe, as newsworthy as Jennings’ high praise.

   Let’s have a look:

   In the 115-113 OT win at Milwaukee on Monday, Beaubois started (and, to coach Rick Carlisle’s credit, Beaubois finished, too, playing the entire overtime period.) But the Mavs leaned on JJB as part of its “Final Five’’ as he got all the important moments as the Mavs attempted to win the game in regulation. Additionally, throughout the game JJB was generally asked to chase around the mercurial Jennings.

    How’d that work out?

In the Milwaukee game, when Barea and Brandon Jennings were on the court at the same time, Jennings was:
FG 6-of-13
FT 2-of-4
PTS 17
REB 5
AST 4
TO 1

In the Milwaukee game, here are Jennings’ numbers when JJB was out of the game:
FG 2-of-9
FT 3-of-4
PTS 8
REB 2
AST 4
TO 1

   We do not think it is oversimplifying things to say that Brandon Jennings was literally twice as effective when he was opposed by J.J. Barea.

    Now, is this something new? What about 24 hours before, in the Mavs’ 95-90 victory at Detroit? Once again, Beaubois was the starter. But JJB was an important part of Carlisle’s 3-PG Attack, as was so often the case last season. Meanwhile, the shorthanded Pistons were heavily reliant on guard Will Bynum, who got off for 27 points.

   Will Bynum? Really? How’d he do that?

In the Detroit game, when Barea and Will Bynum were on the court at the same time, Bynum:

PTS 19

REB 2

AST 2

In the Detroit game, here are Bynum’s numbers when JJB was out of the game:
PTS 8

REB 0

AST 1

   Now, let’s take a breath here. None of the above (raw numbers offered by Mike Bacsik of The 75-Member Staff and discussed here on DB.com Boards) is intended by me to be JJB-bashing. Nnd none of what you are about to read – is meant as an argument against the 5-11 Barea as a commodity. He’s built himself from undrafted D-League team-mascot status to legit backup NBA point guard/2-guard, he is valued by this organization as a person and as a talent, and without his offensive zippiness, driving fearlessness, shooting range and knack for drawing the charge (he’s as good as there is in the NBA), last year’s Mavs wouldn’t have won 50 and probably wouldn’t have topped San Antonio in Round 1.

   Heck, with the Spurs coming to town tonight, I can already feel it: JJB is going to draw a charge on Tony Parker. Book it.

  But this is a “talent-acquisition business,’’ as sports GMs like to say. … and the Mavs have acquired a talent who, when he’s on the floor, doesn’t allow Brandon Jennings and Will Bynum to dominate like they’re Hercules and Paul Bunyan. (Plus, Roddy does card tricks!)

   Now to JJB’s Plus/Minus thing. Keep in mind, the Mavs are pretty much the Plus/Minus Kings of the NBA right now. Unfortunately, though, JJB hasn’t been able to coattail along on the Plus/Minus Gravy Train.

Here’s the Mavs’ opponent, Barea’s Plus/Minus stat, and the Mavs’ Plus-Minus stat for that game:

GAME                        JJ’s +/-             MAVS’ +/-
1.Wash              -12                             -11
2.LAL                 0                               +14
3.LAC              -4                                +9
4.Utah               +1                               +11
5.N.O.               -3                              -7
6.Tor                +18                             +28
7.Hou               +2                               +18
8.S.A.               -8                               -9
9.Minn             +1                               +12
10.Det              -7                               +5
11.Milw           -15                              +2

  Add is up and the Mavs are a +72. Add it up and JJB is a -27. Now, around here, we are largely reliant on “The Eye Test’’ for our judging of talent and performance. But minus-27 on a team that is plus-72 essentially suggests that for all of JJB’s attributes, this year’s 8-3 Mavs are a speedboat … dragging along an anchor they forget to take out of the water.

   OK, that’s a little harsh. Let’s go back to “The Eye Test’’ … and use the eyes of some Bucks-related watchers.
   The website Bucksketball.com writes in review of Monday’s thriller:

    Jennings was once again a one-man show in the fourth quarter. 13 of his 25 points, including two three-pointers. Not so coincidentally, Jennings had more room to operate with Rodrigue Beaubois out of the game for the entire fourth period.  Beaubois’ quickness was a huge factor in Dallas’ success against Jennings early and Beaubois defense on the final play made Jennings look like a rookie for the very first time all year pretty much.

    “Not so coicidentally,’’ indeed.

    In fact, it’s apparently Bucksketball.com that posed the question to Jennings about whether he’s ever seen anybody with Roddy’s quickness and got that resonant answer. ...

   “No, I haven’t,’’ Jennings said. I think he is the future for that team.’’

   We’re not going that far. There’s no need for Dirk Nowitzki to pass the mantle to Roddy Beaubois just yet. But we say it is time to listen to that expert testimony, it is time to count up that statistical evidence, and it is time to consider having J.J. Barea begin switching spots with Roddy Beaubois on the Mavs rotation totem pole.

Coming up Friday in the second of this two-part series: Part 2: Jason Kidd Helps DB.com Crunch The +/- Numbers on Barea Vs. Beaubois.