Bill Simmons NFL Prediction System? He's 12-of-64

   ESPN’s “The Sports Guy’’ Bill Simmons insists he knows “The Secret’’ and insists he has a “system.’’

   But if there are really “systems’’ and secrets’’ then how does Bill make 64 predictions for the 2009 NFL season ... and get 52 of them wrong?

   Here's what I hope is accepted as a good-natured look at Simmons’ NFL predictions … offered as proof that if you think you have a prognostication “system’’ that keeps you from being a “sucker,’’ you are a sucker.

    And if you believe in a sportswriter’s system – even a gifted and witty sportswriter – you are a sucker’s sucker.

    Earlier this year, Bill boasted that “through the first six weeks of the 2009 NFL season, your buddy Simmons was enjoying a career year with his picks column. … Fifty-eight wins, 32 losses. Against the spread. …’’ 

   Wow. How did you accomplish that, sir?

    “I spend more time on this column than you can possibly imagine. It takes me three-and-a-half days to write. I watch every minute of football on Sunday and Monday. I scour newspapers and TV shows searching for tidbits. I spend two full days writing material, making picks and flipping games around every which way. Three years ago, I even turned my office into a man cave and added four televisions just so I could watch as much football as possible. …’’

 

   Really? You watch more football than the rest of us? OK, but wasn’t your success just the fortuitous bounce of the ball?

 

    “I have been writing this column for 13 years and always felt like there was some magical formula that kept eluding me; if I kept plugging away, eventually everything would make sense.. I had to do better. Things turned last year and finally took off this season. Again, 58-32 through six weeks.

   Was it just blind luck? Not exactly. You might remember my "Simbotics" column from 2004, when I tried to determine a science for picking games …’’

 

   Bill is a more gifted humorist than most of us. But possessor of a better system, a greater passion, a stronger work ethic, a greater insight, more television sets and a superior “system’’?

 

    Nah. In fact, I went back to Bill’s 2009 NFL Predictions Column and tallied up all his prognostications. It's great fun, as always.

 

     But there's a problem.

 

    Of the 64 predictions he makes about teams and players, he gets 52 of them wrong.

    Again, 12 wins, 52 losses.

 

    An item-by-item review of Bill’s predictions:

 

   Prediction I: The Buffalo Bills will finish with the worst record in football.

   Nope. Most of us knew Buffalo would be a have-not. But they finished 6-10, and eight teams finished with poorer records.

 

   Prediction II: The Patriots will become the first NFL team to crack 900-plus combined points for and against in one season.

   Nope. The Pats’ for-and-against point total was 712. Billis quite off-the-mark here considering he's a Patriots follower.

 

   Prediction III: A promising Minnesota start (3-0) will unhinge thanks to a fatal Molotov cocktail: an aging/reckless/washed-up QB who fades in November/December (Favre), a shaky coach (Brad Childress) and the pressure of unrealistic expectations. I see Favre retiring (again), and Childress getting fired …

   Bill gets the Minny start correct, he gets Farve's season completely wrong, he was almost right about the fade, and as much as I wish he was right about Chilly, the Vikings’ uninspiring boss actually signed a new contract during the season so we’re stuck with him. Give Bill a 1-of-4 here, making him 1-of-6 overall.

 

   Prediction IV: The Super Bowl Loser Curse will continue with a 5-11 Cards season.

   No sir. The defending NFC champs (10-5) won their division and are back in the playoffs. Bill is 1-of-7.

 

   Prediction V: Comeback years for LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Urlacher, Kurt Warner jokes, Roy Williams, the "Da Bears" guys, the Seahawks, the Chaz Cinco/Carson Palmer hookup, Dom Capers, Ryan Grant, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and kids Karl Malone had out of wedlock. Fall-off years for the Dolphins and Falcons, Brian Westbrook, DirecTV ads, Emmitt Smith quote pages, the Wildcat offense, NFL players getting into trouble, dogfighting rings, Donovan McNabb and Steve Smith inexplicably punching out teammates. Breakout years for Aaron Rodgers jerseys, running backs named "Knowshon," tight ends named "Jermichael," Mike Lombardi, Rex Ryan, the Redskins' defense, giant video screens that look like UFOs and interfere with games, Detroit's Kevin Smith and "Drew Brees is a superduperstar" conversations.

   Out of all those 28 or so predictions, I would say three turned out to be correct. Westbrook sustained a concussion, Cinco/Carson is productive and the Falcons did indeed fall off. So, Bill is 3-of-28 here, and 4-of-35 overall.

 

   PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

   Round One: Patriots (3) over Broncos (6); Ravens (5) over Colts (4); Giants (3) over Redskins (6); Bears (5) over Seahawks (4).

   No, no, no and no. In fact, of the eight teams Bill tabs here as Round 1 entries, only two even made the playoffs. So that’s 0-of-4 here, and 4-of-39 overall.

   Round Two: Patriots (3) over Chargers (2); Steelers (1) over Ravens (5); Bears (5) over Saints (1); Packers (2) over Giants (3).

   Maybe kinda, no, no and no. Maybe 1-of-4, and 5-of-43 overall.

   Round Three: Steelers (1) over Patriots (3); Packers (2) over Bears (5).

   No and no. “The Sports Guy’’ is 5-of-46.

   Super Bowl: Packers 27, Steelers 19

   Because it’s possible for the Packers to win the Super Bowl, we won’t count this pick against him. Make it 6-of-47.

 

   Prediction VI: Blackouts of home games will become the signature media story of the 2009 season.

   Nah. Bill – in attempting to make an out-of-nowhere hyperbolic declaration -- is 6-of-48.

 

   Prediction No. VII: I have a rare talent for sniffing out the Bandwagon Sleeper That's Not Actually a Sleeper. But sniffing it out nine months before Week 1? Impressive even for me. In December, I wrote that "the Texans are headed for a respectable 9-7 finish, followed by seven months of building excitement about 2009, then an onslaught of 'I'll tell ya who I like as a sleeper -- the Texans!' media picks ... and they'll immediately crumble under the weight of those expectations and finish 5-11 next season. … (Put it this way: We are right on schedule. Beware of the Texans. …

   Nope. The Texas aren’t going to be 5-11. They went 9-7. Simmons' "rare talent'' drops him to 6-of-49.

 

   Prediction No. VIII: My (sleeper) pick? The Broncos…. . Ten and six, I say.

   Bill was almost right for a moment there, as Denver started hot. But I believe they finished 8-8. And Bill is now 6-of-50.

 

   Prediction IX: Vick spent too much time in the joint. The food stinks in the joint. You sleep terribly in the joint. You can't condition properly in the joint. You age in dog years in the joint. Remember what happened to Jamal Lewis? Vick spent three times as long in the joint. If he ever gets "it" back, it won't be until 2010.

   Yes! And maybe Bill has “it’’ back, too, because he’s just gotten a 2009 NFL prediction right! … moving him up to 7-of-51.

 

   Prediction X: The six best teams this season will be New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Green Bay, the Giants ... and New Orleans. (That's right, New Orleans. You heard me.) The other six playoff teams will be Indianapolis, Seattle, Chicago, Baltimore, Denver and Washington. In the Super Bowl, Green Bay will defeat Pittsburgh to cap off the first Eff You season devoted to a specific player. That player would be you, Brett Favre.

   Maybe, no, definitely, maybe, no, and definitely. Followed by: yes, no, no, no, no and no. And the Packers pushed to success by Favre hate? Inasmuch as Green Bay lost both its head-to-head games with Minnesota, no. So ‘Prediction X’s scorecard means Bill is 5-of-13 here …

 

   For a grand total of 12-of-64.

 

   Bill “The Sports Guy’’ Simmons made 64 predictions for the NFL season … predictions essentially centered on the most fundamental elements of all, which teams would be good and which teams wouldn’t be good … and he was wrong on 52 of his 64 prognostications.

 

   Let me reiterate: I enjoy Bill Simmons. The books, the movies, the columns, the humor, the persona. I like Cousin Sal and I love Bill's stories about his dad and I'm learning to deal with Kimmel. And every once in awhile, because Bill is a huge NBA guy, he acknowledges our humble work here on DallasBasketball.com, which is always cool. But unless all of this "I-have-a-system'' stuff is a put-on, I’m a little shocked at his naivete in really believing he has an I’m-smarter-than-you-are'' magic formula … regardless of whether he has “four TVs in one room’’ or not.

 

   In that “I-have-a-system’’ column, Bill kiddingly asked that his readers “stay away from (my) picks’’ because he didn’t want us damn dirty losers to jinx ‘em.

 

     “Hands off,’’ he wrote. “Please don't let them sway you in any way.’’

   “The Sports Guy’’ doesn’t want me to let his NFL predictions influence mine? Inasmuch as he’s 12-of-64, um, yeah, that’s a good bet.

 

 

 

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