LeBron + Bosh Mavs Trickle-Down
LeBron has chosen Cleveland, leaving Miami. The implications for the Dallas Mavericks? Let’s take a look at what is happening now.
While LeBron delayed, the NBA effectively went into a stall pattern as teams waited to see where he would go, and agents waited to see who might have money freed afterward. His Friday morning announcement via SI.com that he’s leaving Miami is immediately causing a new flurry of activity, and the Mavs are in the middle of it.
The next piece in the puzzle was Chris Bosh, who was committed to Miami if LeBron stayed, but undecided if he didn’t. That decision has been made: Bosh is taking five years and $18 mil to stay in Miami without LeBron.
Know that without a sign-and-trade with Miami, Houston could not max Bosh and match Parsons. (Full details on how this works here.) And the five-year deal with Miami means there is no snt. Bosh isn't Houston-bound.
Houston Preference No. 1
If he opted for Houston, then the Rockets would've certainly tried first to acquire him by sign-and-trade rather than by using cap room. Of course that would've required the cooperation of the Heat. No go.
Had they done so, the trade would've included at least four teams ... but that’s not as complicated as it sounds. For the most part, all the pieces besides the swap of Bosh between Miami and Houston had already been teed up, and all that’s left for the Rockets would be to work out terms with Miami for Bosh.
We wrote this a.m. that a trade might look very much like the following, which meets all the NBA rules:
•NO gets Asik …and gives up a #1 pick (to MIA) and Rivers (to MIA)
•PHI gets Lin and a HOU #1 pick …and gives up a highly protected #2 pick (to MIA)
•MIA gets T Jones, Rivers, NO #1 pick, and PHI #2 pick …and gives up Bosh (to HOU)
•HOU gets Bosh …and gives up Asik (to NO), Lin (to PHI), T Jones (to MIA), #1 pick (to PHI)
But now there are changes. Lin is going to the Lakers, the idea being to create Rockets cap room. Bosh is not in play to have that room used on him, however.
Houston might've tried to persuade Bosh to take a less-than-max salary. In its most extreme form, the Rockets would get rid of everyone except Harden and Howard, and perhaps a cap hold for Parsons, and then they could've offer a not-quite-max deal to Bosh (about $1.2M less in year 1, and about $5.1M less over four years). After that, they could match Parsons, and then fill out the rest of the roster with a room MLE and minimum salary players.
Houston Can't Get Bosh. Now What?
The situation now presents a huge crossroads for the Rockets. If they match Parsons they would be without cap room in the future. Given their prioritized need for a stretch-4 and with Kevin Love (a name who might be involved now in Cleveland's quick re-build) and perhaps Aldridge being available in free agency in 2015, would they go ahead and clog up their cap if they didn’t land Bosh and solve that need?
If so, alongside matching Parsons, they would still pull the trigger on the Asik deal with NO, keep the rest of their players, and they would be over the cap this summer and for the foreseeable future. If they wanted, they could use a full MLE and a BAE.
Or maybe not.
They might look at that roster, not as good as the one that just failed to escape Round 1 of the playoffs, and decide they don’t want to have their hands tied. In that case, they’d let Parsons go to Dallas and try to position for a Love-like deal in 2015.
The Mavs Situation
The Mavs? In all this, their role is simple. They will simply await the outcome of their offer to Parsons (three years and $$46,084,500 ... $14,700,000 in year one, $15,361,500 in year two and the player' option $16,023,000 in year three) ... and line up alternatives in case one of the “Houston decides to match Parsons” scenarios comes to pass.
Dallas didn't go into this blindly.
They remain in contact with other alternatives. (While hoping there are enough targets behind the LeBron Logjam and their weekend-long Rockets joust to move on to.) Right now? For the Mavs and Parsons, it can easily go either way. We've already learned the fates of LeBron and Bosh. Soon we’ll learn Parsons'.